02/09/2021

New SF Home Starts Up 7.5% in 2020

Q4 Permit Data... An All-Time High

Housing Supply

Nationwide, the number of housing starts rose by 1.2% over the month of November 2020 to 1,547,000. Single-family starts rose by 0.4% to 1,186,000. Multifamily starts rose by 4.0% to 361,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 12.8%. Single-family starts are up by 27.1% but multifamily starts are down by 17.6%. 

In the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, the number of housing starts fell by 4.9% over the month of November 2020 to 196,000. Single-family starts fell by 9.3% to 137,000. Multifamily starts rose by 7.3% to 59,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are up by 15.3%. Single-family starts are up by 24.5% but multifamily starts are down by 1.7%. 

On a year-to-date basis, total permits over the past 12 months ending in November 2020 are up by 24.2% across the state of Ohio to 26,675. Single-family permits are up by 18.3% to 17,230 and multifamily permits are up by 36.5% to 9,445. In 

Throughout the Dayton region, single-family permits are up by 9.7% to 2,382, and including all units (SF + ATT only beginning in 2020) permits are up by 7.5% to 2,495.

Employment

The United States lost 9.2 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 6.0%. In the last month, 517.0 thousand jobs were gained, increasing by 0.4%. 

The Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, lost 2.00 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 6.0%. In the last month, 41.0 thousand jobs were lost, decreasing by 0.1%. 

House Prices

Nationwide, house prices grew by 1.6% over the third quarter of 2020, and over the past year house prices across the country rose by 4.7%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2011, house prices in the US were 18.4% below their second quarter of 2007 peak level. Currently, house prices are 22.2% above their boom-related peak level. 

Across the East North Central Division, a component of the Midwest Region which includes the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.9% over the third quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the Division rose by 4.5%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2012, house prices in the East North Central Division were 16.6% below their fourth quarter of 2006 peak level. Currently, house prices in the East North Central Division are 15.9% above their boom-related peak level. 

Across the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 2.3% over the third quarter of 2020 and over the past year house prices in the state rose by 5.7%. At its low, reached in the fourth quarter of 2012, house prices in Ohio were 12.9% below their third quarter of 2005 peak level. Currently, house prices in Ohio are 20.8% above their boom-related peak level. 

Builder Sentiment

According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market nationally fell by 4 points to 86 over the month of December 2020. Over the past year, the HMI has risen by 10 points from 76 in December 2019. Any value above 50 means more builders are seeing improvement rather than decline. The HMI fell to a low of 8 in January 2009. Sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market in the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, fell by 3 points to 82 over the month of December 2020. Over the past year, builder sentiment in the Midwest Region has risen by 9 points from 73 in December 2019. Builder confidence in the Midwest Region fell to a low of 6 in December 2008.

Source: National Association of Home Builders