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06/26/2020

Housing Market Update

Impact of COVID-19

Employment

The United States lost 20.0 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 13.3%. In the last month, 19.7 million jobs were lost, decreasing by 13.1%.

The Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, lost 4.80 million jobs over the past year, decreasing by 14.4%. In the last month, 4.3 million jobs were lost, decreasing by 13.1%.

The state of Ohio lost 873.9 thousand jobs over the past year, decreasing by 15.6%. In the last month, 769.2 million jobs were lost, decreasing by 14.0%.

Housing Supply

Nationwide, the number of housing starts fell by 30.2% over the month of April 2020 to 891,000. Single-family starts fell by 25.4%  to 650,000. Multifamily starts fell by 40.5%  to 241,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are down by 29.7%. Single-family starts are down by 24.8%, and multifamily starts are down by 40.2%.

In the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, the number of housing starts fell by 14.9% over the month of April 2020 to 131,000. Single-family starts fell by 13.3%  to 98,000. Multifamily starts fell by 19.5%   to 33,000. Over the past 12 months, total housing starts are down by 20.1%. Single-family starts are down by 17.6%, and multifamily starts are down by 26.7%.

On a year-to-date basis, total permits over the past 12 months ending in April 2020 are up by 7.8% across the state of Ohio to 7,368. Single-family permits are up by 6.0% to 4,899, and multifamily permits are up by 11.6% to 2,469.

House Prices

Nationwide, house prices grew by 1.1% over the first quarter of 2020, and over the past year, house prices across the country rose by 5.0%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2011, house prices in the US were 18.4% below their second quarter of 2007 peak level. Currently, house prices are 20.9% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the East North Central Division, a component of the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.0% over the first quarter of 2020, and over the past year, house prices in the Division rose by 4.6%. At its low, reached in the third quarter of 2012, house prices in the East North Central Division were 16.7% below their fourth quarter of 2006 peak level. Currently, house prices in the East North Central Division are 14.6% above their boom-related peak level.

Across the state of Ohio, house prices grew by 1.5% over the first quarter of 2020, and over the past year, house prices in the country rose by 5.8%.  At its low, reached in the fourth quarter of 2012, house prices in Ohio were 12.9% below their third quarter of 2005 peak level. Currently, house prices in Ohio are 18.9% above their boom-related peak level.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index 

According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market nationally rose by 7 points to 37 over the month of May 2020. Over the past year, the HMI fallen by 29 points from 66 in May 2019. Any value above 50 means more builders see improvement rather than decline. The HMI fell to a low of 8 in January 2009.

Sentiment among builders for the single-family housing market in the Midwest Region, which includes the state of Ohio, rose by 7 points to 32 over the month of May 2020. Over the past year, builder sentiment in the Midwest Region has fallen by 24 points from 56 in May 2019. Builder confidence in the Midwest Region fell to a low of 6 in December 2008.

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